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By-elections hardly a surprise victory

7 December, 2009

The by-election results of Bradfield and Higgins have been dubbed a “surprise” by some media outlets, given the small swing in favour of the Liberal Party.

But a surprise is hardly the word, even if it does come amid strong debate for the ETS and other “green” issues, based on two factors:

1) naturally, the Labor Party did not run a candidate, and results would naturally have been different if they had. It is foolish to think the Green Party are equivocal to a Labor-Green vote simply because;

2) the Greens are, as their name suggests, still pretty much a one-issue party. Or rather, I should say, this is the common perception, and their name does nothing to convince voters that they are a “sensible” or “rational” alternative to one of the major parties. Is it not fair to say that these voters will likely never vote for the Greens, even if their only alternative is Liberal (or an informal vote I presume)?

Perhaps the largest surprise is why the swing to the Liberal Party was actually so small. Abbot may cut the victories which ever way they read best for him. But behind closed doors, I hope he is mindful of this fact.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. ribbet permalink
    7 December, 2009 4:40 pm

    Well why did the Labour Party naturally not run a candidate. As Annabel Crabbe said on Insiders,” It was a bit rude really not to take into account the Labour voters and give them a choice”.

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